SANE PREDICTIONS ARE CRAZY
What I’ve learned from writing articles about this year’s trends is that we really don’t know what to predict with any accuracy. The recent speed of innovation can leave you wondering what just happened. Ninety percent of all data was created in the last two years and 25 percent of the Fortune 100 will be coming from what we recently dubbed “startups”.
Because of this, I say that it’s crazy to talk about rational or sane predictions. The sane predictions are the ones we all see coming and aren’t worth speculating about. So, I try to focus on the macro trends of the decade versus the micro trends of the year. With the speed of innovation comes shifts in culture, resources and geography that aren’t always identifiable in real time. The macro trends emerging are a collection of synthesized micro trends refined over time. What’s the role of a data center—not just as infrastructure but also within society? What’s the role of security not just within software or the network, but in the supply chain, too? Is innovation really all that if it’s not also agile? How will we think of customer service in the future as machines take over most interactions and don’t respond to yelling? PERHAPS THEY CAN BE PROGRAMMED TO RECOGNIZE ANGRY CUSTOMERS USING ALL CAPS.
SIMPLE GESTURES ARE MACRO TRENDS
Sane predictions are crazy (not worth making) and basic gestures (not made enough) can be elegantly simple and enduring. So, make this a trend—be kind to each other and the environment, you’ll be surprised how well that effort meshes with the macro trends of innovation. As fast as everything moves and as much as everything changes, at least we can will these trends into becoming constants throughout time.